Current Perspectives

 

CURRENT PERSPECTIVES OVERVIEW

CURRENT PERSPECTIVES explore the economic, social and physical ramifications of human settlement patterns.  Along with the material in GALLERY and RESOURCES, CURRENT PERSPECTIVES illustrate, amplify and extend the theses, principles, laws, axioms, strategies and tactics in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE and TRILO-G. profiled on PUBLICATIONS page of this site.

Click here for an overview of the context and role of Current Perspectives in the work of E M Risse

Click here to review a navigation primer for Current Perspectives

For definitions of words that may appear to be 'irregular Capitalization' in Current Perspectives see GLOSSARY in RESOURCES. also see TRILO-G Chapter 26 – Gibberish: The Vocabulary of Babel and "New Urban Region Conceptual Framework" in Chapter 49 of TRILO-G. and End Note Three of Current Perspective #34

 


 
 # 35 A PLACE TO START Beta 3.1

31 August 2014

Over and over – after the shock of the scope of the Transformations in settlement patterns, governance structures and economic systems that are needed to achieve a sustainable trajectory become clear – the first question is:

    Where do we start?

This CURRENT PERSPECTIVE lays out the initial steps to be taken at the REgional and the Alpha COmmunity scales.


CLICK HERE TO READ ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)
 

 
 # 34 WHISTLING PAST THE GRAVEYARD Beta 2.2

31 August 2014

During the final review of CURRENT PERSPECTIVE # 33 the author and two of the reviewers of that PERSPECTIVE were invited to make a presentation to the Warrenton, VA Rotary Club.  This was the second presentation by SYNERGY to this Institution.  The first is summarized in CURRENT PERSPECTIVE # 27 THREE UNFOUNDED ASSUMPTIONS.

The content and ‘read before’ material were agreed to by the presenters but, as noted in the End Note Two, the material was not distributed.  This resulted in the prepared material being changed on the fly. The original presentation was crafted as a brief call to arms.  The revised version, presented here, is a do-it-yourself educational vehicle to inspire Awareness => Interest => Understanding => ACTION.  
    
While the presentation was intended to be ‘a wake up call’, the audience reaction could have been a poster to illustrate the parable of ‘Frogs in a Caldron when the temperature is slowly raised.’

The COmmunity leadership was not ready to jump out of the Caldron or to understand the need for Profound Transformations of settlement patterns, governance structures or economic systems.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)
 

 
# 33 THE GREAT SUBMERGENCE:  LAND AND URBAN IMPROVEMENT VALUES IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.  Beta 3.2
 
28 June 2014 
 
This Perspective examines the context and current trajectory of the value of land and of Urban improvements in the Outer Radius Bands of large New Urban Regions.  
 
In June 2014 when the ‘spring house selling season’ closed with a whimper, it was a good time to summarize the current and future trajectory of land and Urban improvement values, in the Outer Radius Bands of large New Urban Regions.
 
This CURRENT PERSPECTIVE was completed before CURRENT PERSPECTIVES # 34 and # 35 but the time consumed by events related to those two PERSPECTIVES delayed the posting of this PERSPECTIVE.  Most of the 'current' data cited is from May and June of 2014.
 
As suggested by CURRENT PERSPECTIVE # 34,  citizens and their leaders are still not prepared to embrace reality.
 
 

 

 # 32 IMPACT OF THE U TURN IN THE PIEDMONT Beta 3.0

21 October 2013

This Perspective surveys how the profound Transformations outlined in UNReal Estate, Current Perspective # 31 are reshaping the future of the northern Piedmont Countryside in Virginia and the Urban enclaves that make up the Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Beta Community.

The U TURN has fundamentally changed the parameters controlling the use and management of land that have evolved over the past 300-plus years in this SubRegion. The U TURN reflects contemporary economic, social and physical reality across the United States.  This Perspective focuses on the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region, the fourth largest New Urban Region in the US and on the National Capital SubRegion which includes the northern Piedmont Countryside of Virginia.

Over the past 560 years a parade of scientific, technological, industrial, economic and governance Transformations have profoundly changed civilization.  Among other things, these Transformations have exponentially increased human population and the per capita consumption of renewable and nonrenewable resources.

Over the past 300 years these changes have directly impacted those living in the northern Piedmont of Virginia.  For the first 294 years, those living in the northern Piedmont economically benefited from being in the orbit of – the Regional Field-of-Gravity of – what has become the fourth largest Urban agglomeration in the United States – the Washington-Baltimore New Urban Region.

That has now changed.
 
 

# 31 UNReal Estate Beta 2.1
 
21 October 2013

Over the past 65 years there have been a number of relatively minor real estate bubbles in the United States.  Some have been SubRegional and Regional, some have been MegaRegional and National.  During this same period, a MegaBubble has been building.
 
Vast tracks of what has been thought of as ‘real estate’ in the United States are about to become UNReal Estate.  The current value of much of the land in the United States is based on the assumption that MORE Urban land will be needed to provide for FUTURE Urban land uses.  

The fact is that there is ALREADY far too much land devoted to Urban land uses.  There is an even greater excess of land which is held for FUTURE Urban Land Uses.  This oversupply of Urban land will exist even if population continued to grow at or above the rate of the last six decades. 

The U TURN is the force which will burst this MegaBubble.  The drivers of The U TURN are spelled out in THREE OVERARCHING DETERMINANTS, Current Perspective # 30.

UNReal Estate provides the information citizens need to understand the UNReal Estate MegaBubble and to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the marketplace.
 


# 30 THREE OVERARCHING DETERMINANTS Beta 3.0

07 July 2013 - Rev 21 Oct 2013

The Future of Housing Markets – and Everything Else – in the United States

THREE OVERARCHING DETERMINANTS a summary of the future shelter market in the United States.  This Perspective provides an overview of recent work by SYNERGY on the SubRegion, Regional and MegaRegional analysis of the relationship between the shelter market and human settlement patterns at these scales.

The three determinants are:

    1)    The cohorts of the population that will dominate the shelter market for the next two decades.

    2)    The settlement patterns that are favored by the future market which SYNERGY characterizes as 'The U TURN.'

    3)    The profound impact of Regional and SubRegional location on the value of land and improvements for Urban land uses.

THREE OVERARCHING DETERMINANTS, Current Perspective #30 carries forward the perspectives outline in SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE, Current Perspective # 26.  This overview is based on insights presented in Current Perspectives Numbers 27, 28 and 29.  An omnibus Perspective is now presented as CP # 31.  This Perspective allows citizens to quantify and understand the impact of The U
 TURN.  CP # 32 prepares citizens of the northern Piedmont to take informed action in the voting booth and in the marketplace.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)  


 

# 29 CRITICAL STRATEGIES Beta 4

18 February 2013

CRITICAL STRATEGIES, outlines the actions needed to achieve functional human settlement patterns, the sine qua non of obtaining a sustainable economic, social and physical trajectory for Greater Warrenton-Fauquier.

This Perspective presents a summary of the strategies considered by the Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Community Future Forum (Sept / Oct / Nov 2012).  It was prepared to help facilitators and participants arrive at a consensus on the strategies that will be needed to achieve a Balanced, Complete Community in Greater Warrenton-Fauquier.

None of these strategies are “new.”  All of the strategies have been recommended as part of Community sustainability programs, and all have strong factual foundations.  Most of these Strategies have already been implemented across the United States in Communities that are working to establish a sustainable trajectory. 

Note: The 12 November 2012 Beta 3 Strategy Worksheet has been revised for clarification.  No substantive changes have been made.  Also see BEYOND PAPA BEAR HOT – THE ROAD AHEAD for seven short term strategies consistent with those found in this Perspective.

CLICK HERE TO READ ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)


# 28 FUNDAMENTAL REALITIES

21 October 2012

A citizen education initiative termed COMMUNITY FUTURES FORUM was launched on 26 September 2012.  The forum brings together a small group of well informed citizens representing a broad range of experience and expertise to consider strategies that could evolve a Balanced, Complete Community in Greater Warrenton-Fauquier.

COMMUNITY FUTURE FORUM (CFF) is comprised of five sessions.  Sessions One and Two focused on understanding the context of, and the parameters that control, any strategy implemented to evolve a functional and sustainable economic, social and physical trajectory for the citizens of the Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Community.

FUNDAMENTAL REALITIES spells out the conclusions that can be drawn from the first two CFF Sessions and the suggested readings.  These are the FUNDAMENTAL REALITIES that will shape the future of Greater Warrenton Fauquier.

Part One provides a summary of the Fundamental Realities related to human settlement patterns and Mobility and Access that impact the Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Beta Community.

Part Two outlines the context for evolving strategies to create resilient and sustainable, Balanced (Complete) Communities OUTSIDE The Logical Location of The Clear Edge around the Cores of prosperous New Urban Regions.  Greater Warrenton-Fauquier is a prototype that has a strong possibility to succeed BUT ONLY IF citizens unite to implement a comprehensive suite of strategies to create a Balanced, Complete Community.

Part Three provides resources and references that document the SubRegional, Regional and MegaRegional Realities summarized in Part One.

Part Four is a brief summary of the global economic context about which the citizens of Greater Warrenton-Fauquier need to be aware. 


CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)


 # 27 THREE UNFOUNDED ASSUMPTIONS

21 October 2012

In the Spring of 2012 it was decided to launch yet another citizen education initiative concerning the shape of the future in Greater Warrenton-Fauquier.  This initiative is based on SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE, Current Perspective # 26.  The first step was to identify why most citizens did not recognize the need for Fundamental Transformations.

THREE UNFOUNDED ASSUMPTIONS concerning the rapidly changing economic and spacial relationship between Greater Warrenton-Fauquier and the Core of the National Capital SubRegion was presented to the Warrenton Rotary on 31 May 2012.

The three assumptions challenged in this presentation were:

1) The economic, social and physical relationships between the Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Community and the Core of the Nation Capital SubRegion have been growing closer for almost 300 years and they will continue to grow closer in the future. (The last phrase is no longer true.)

2) The Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Community will continue to ‘grow’ as it has since 1950 because the National Capital SubRegion will continue to ‘grow’ as it has in the past.  (Not true.)

3) The Greater Warrenton-Fauquier Community will continue to grow as it has since 1950 because the Core of the National Capital SubRegion is running out of land to Urbanize.  (Never true)

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)


# 26  SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE

13 February 2012

As the word ‘consilience’ in the title suggests, this Perspective brings together -- and, brings up to date --  major themes of the Science of Human Settlement Patterns.

The core insights found in SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE are:

  • The geographic expansion of the Urban fabric within the United States has peaked and is now on the cusp of receding.

  • This reversal of rapid physical expansion by Urban agglomerations in the United States was and is inevitable given the rate of consumption and current status of the planets resources.

The good news is that the Fundamental Transformation of settlement patterns which CAN result from the reversal of the rapid expansion of the Urban footprint is absolutely necessary if citizen are to achieve a sustainable trajectory for ‘modern’ (technology- based) civilization.

SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE explores strategies and processes necessary to achieve the Fundamental Transformations that are required to evolve functional and sustainable human settlement patterns – in the Urbanside, in the Countryside – ESPECIALLY “AT AND NEAR THE CLEAR EDGE.” 

SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE articulates strategies which citizens and their Households as well as Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions can employ to avoid economic and social implosion for all who OWN, OCCUPY or GOVERN the millions of acres of land that was partially and dysfunctionally converted to scattered Urban land uses over the past 50 years.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF) 


# 24 LIVE BY, DIE BY Beta 3.2

17 December 2011 / Refreshed 23 February 2013

 Live by a Mass OverConsumption-driven, exponential growth-based economy on a finite planet, 

 THEN

 Die by a Mass OverConsumption-driven, exponential growth-based economy on a finite planet. 

This Perspective presents a thumbnail sketch of the desperate condition in which citizens find themselves:

Humans are trapped with Primitive Genetic Proclivities that drive Unfounded and Conflicting Neural Linguistic Frameworks and Disorienting Naive Reality in a consumption-driven, exponential growth-based economy on a finite planet.  
 
To maintain the positive aspects of civilization as it has evolved to date, citizens must come to understand the danger of continuing to ride on The Tiger of Mass OverConsumption.

CLICK HERE TO OPEN THE FULL TEXT (PDF)


#23 MANAGING CIVILIZATION – AN OVERVIEW

11 November 2011

Those who read the early drafts of ENOUGH? Current Perspective # 18 were generally in agreement but many asked: 

“OK, if that is the way things are, how can citizens salvage a sustainable trajectory for civilization as we know it?”

MANAGING CIVILIZATION – AN OVERVIEW is an attempt to answer that question in the context sketched out in ENOUGH? CP # 18.

Further insights can be found in LIVE BY, DIE BY Current Perspective # 24, FizCon Current Perspective # 25 and SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE Current Perspective # 26.

CLICK HERE TO READ MANAGING CIVILIZATION – AN OVERVIEW (PDF).


 #22 A BRIEF RENDITION OF THE NEED FOR FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION

11 November 2011

In May of 2011 the Piedmont Business Journal published a profile of E M Risse titled “Fundamental transformation: Community survival depends on philosophical metamorphosis.” 

The author was Bill Walsh, the Executive Editor of the Fauquier Times Democrat one of the weekly and biweekly newspapers that are published by the Times Community Newspaper in the target area of the quarterly  Piedmont Business Journal – the Northern Piedmont of Virginia. 

This profile is an experienced journalists view of E M Risse’s perspectives in the Spring of 2011.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE PROFILE (PDF)   


# 20 SYNERGY PERSPECTIVE ON THE OUTER BELTWAY IN VIRGINIA

11 November 2011

This brief Current Perspective addresses one simple question:

Since rational opposition to new Roadways is still being overwhelmed by the Myth that more roads will ‘get Virginians moving’ and ‘get the economy growing,’ what are the alternatives to “Just Say No” for those concerned with a sustainable future and prosperity for the majority of citizens and opposed to a Western ByPass / Outer Beltway? 

The answer may be a MultiUse Corridor: A way to move people and goods and at the same time create The Clear Edge that is agrarian-friendly.

CLICK HERE TO ACCESS FULL DOCUMENT (PDF)


# 19 COLLAPSE REVISITED

 3 August 2011

In 1997 Jared Diamond published Guns Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies.  The book was a best seller, won a Pulitzer Prize and garnered wide acclaim.  Diamond’s work is cited often in support of the conceptual frameworks articulated in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE and in TRILO-G.   See PUBLICATIONS page at this web site. 


In 2005 Diamond published a second major work, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.   Collapse was a New York Times Best Seller but received a less enthusiastic response.  Why?  It stepped on the toes of Business-As-Usual.  In August of 2005, SYNERGY published a supportive overview of Collapse.

 See  http://www.baconsrebellion.com/Issues05/08-08/Risse.php

Recently, Penguin released a revised edition of Collapse.   The revised part of this edition is a 22 page Afterword on the Collapse of the Urban agglomeration of Angkor.  Angkor was in present day Cambodia and was the capital of the Khmer Empire.  The Khmer Empire was the largest empire in Southeast Asia during most of a five hundred year span from 800 AD to 1300 AD. 

What was special about Angkor is that it was the largest Urban agglomeration to ever exist on the planet and held that title until the late 19th century when it was surpassed in scale by what is now the London New Urban Region. 

EMR suggests that it does not take a great leap of imagination to go from the reasons for Angkor’s Collapse – water management infrastructure that became to Too Big, Too Dominate and Too Expensive to maintain to the immediate future for those large New Urban Regions with the Autonomobile-centric infrastructure necessary to support settlement patterns dependent upon Large, Private Vehicles.  See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS – PART THREE of TRILO-G.  See PUBLICATIONS page at this web site. 

A brief summary of the facts in the demise of Angkor can be found in this Perspective.  Also see WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE? (Forthcoming).

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)   


  # 18 ENOUGH?

1 August 2011

ENOUGH? asks the question:

Will there be ENOUGH resources to support the dramatically expanding expectations of citizens when there are 9 billion humans on the planet in 2050?  

This multi-chapter Perspective identifies six new and recalibrated lenses through which to examine this question and comes to the conclusion that the answer is NO. 

ENOUGH? has been in production since January 2011 when the unrest / riots / revolution spread from Urban agglomerations in Tunisia to Urban agglomerations in Egypt and the first sprouts of The Arab Spring appeared.

ENOUGH? is now in draft Beta 3.  Each day there is new information that must be reflected in the eight draft chapters and in the summary of future chapters.   However, those who have read and commented on the earlier drafts believe it is important that the current draft Perspective be available on line.

The Executive Summary and Overview provides a seven page introduction to the Perspective.  Those who would like to comment on any part of the Beta 3 draft or would like to read and comment on future drafts before publication may indicate their interest on the form found on the CONTACT page of this web site.

Further Reading:

Viewers may find the Perspective “DeGrowth” linked below on this web page of interest.  In addition to THE ALPHA COMMUNITY READING LIST linked further down this CURRENT PERSPECTIVES page, a valuable source of information on the parameters of sustainable economic systems is The New Economics Institute. 

http://neweconomicsinstitute.org/ 

Gar Alperovitz, a board member of the Institute recently published a summary of current initiatives related to sustainable economic systems.  This article is available at:

http://www.thenation.com/article/160949/new-economy-movement

This and other views of the future will be addressed in the Perspective HALF WAY OUT OF THE CAVE (Forthcoming).

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)


#17  GREEN METROPOLIS – THE TRIUMPH OF NEW URBAN REGIONS AND NOT THE TRIUMPH OF ‘CITIES’

Published Nov 2009 / Republished Jan 2010 / Current Perspective Posted 7 November 2011.

Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability by David Owen (2009) is one of the most important recent books on human settlement patterns.

While Green Metropolis is the most important book on human settlement patterns since Jane Jacobs’ Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961), it suffers from Four Tragic Flaws that are explored as some length in this review.  These Four Tragic Flaws are:

     1. Fuzzy Vocabulary;

     2. Lack of an overarching Conceptual Framework with which to comprehend human settlement patterns; 

     3. Failure to effectively explore the allocation of location-variable costs; and

     4. Silence concerning alternative settlement patterns that achieve the same – or better performance – as those cited by Owen in Green Metropolis.

The publication of Green Metropolis  has been followed by a flood of books, reports and web sites essentially singing the same song as Owen.  The most widely promoted volume is The Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener , Healthier and Happier by Edward Glaeser published in April 2011.  Glaeser’s book has the same flaws as Owen’s PLUS it has a Core Confusing Word in the title.   Both of these books have attracted negative as well as positive reviews.  Most of the negative reviews only obscure the important reality that humans best chance of obtaining a sustainable trajectory for their civilization lies in the evolution of large, functional and sustainable Urban agglomerations.

A number of other recent books reinforce important points made in Green Metropolis.  Among the most useful are Aftershock: The Next Economy and America’s Future by Robert Reich and  The Great Reset: How New Ways of Living and Working Drive Post-Crash Prosperity by Richard Florida.

Of course others have been writing about these very issues for decades.  See the review of Richard Register’s  Ecocities: Rebuilding Cities in Balance With Nature (2006) in Chapter 36 of TRILO-G.  This chapter of TRILO-G also provides references to many other  volumes of the topics covered by Green Metropolis.  Also see “Alpha Community Reading List” Current Perspective # 12.

In September of 2011 Scientific American issued a “Special Issue” titled  Better, Greener, Smarter Cities.  The articles in this Special Issue have the same Four Tragic Flaws as Green Metropolis.  The Special Issue also has the Core Confusing Word ‘cities’ in the title.  It is the ‘summaries’ by the editors of Scientific American that are the most useful contributions of  Better, Greener, Smarter Cities Special Edition.  These summaries call for ‘Balance’ and ‘Fairness’ and note the lack of precision in defining what a ‘city’ is and where the ‘city’ stops and where the ‘suburbs’ (another Core Confusing Word) starts. 

The authors of the main articles in the Special Edition – including two articles by Edward Glaeser – are deep into their individual silos.  Better, Greener, Smarter Cities does provide important graphics and useful data, but the Four Tragic Flaws are clear for all to see.

The reason that this review of Green Metropolis is being republished as a Current Perspective is that every one of the books noted above and the Scientific American Special Issue are hobbled by the same Four Tragic Flaws that plague Green Metropolis

The content and the title of Owen’s Green Metropolis:  Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability sets the stage for useful exploration of human settlement patterns and sets it apart from the rest in scope although all suffer from the Four Tragic Flaws.

NOTE: When Green Metropolis was published in late 2009, Chapter 36 of TRILO-G – “Fireside Reading” was already completed.  This review of Green Metropolis was published in Chapter 50, a chapter of TRILO-G .  Chapter 50 is reserved for important material not included in the first 49 Chapters and will be replaced in Future versions of TRILO-G.
 

 CLICK HERE TO OPEN 20 NOVEMBER 2009 REVIEW (PDF)


# 14 THE OBLIVIOUSNESS OF LEADERS COMPOUNDS THE IGNORANCE OF CITIZENS

16 May 2011

As the time and the resources for humans to make Fundamental Transformations to achieve  sustainable economic, social and physical trajectories become more and more limited, all the “ ... As-Usual” actions (and inactions) become MORE AND MORE DANGEROUS.

The “... As-Usual” actions (and inactions) include:

 Politics-As-Usual by Governance Practitioners, the elected and appointed leaders of  Agencies – The New First Estate;

 Business-As-Usual by owners and managers of Enterprises – The New Second Estate;

 Excuses-As-Usual (aka, ‘traditional values’) by those with influence in Institutions – The New Third Estate, and;

 Consumption-As-Usual by Citizens and their Households – The New Fourth Estate.

 The most egregious of these “... As-Usual’s” is Politics-As Usual. 

The leaders of both political Clans are failing to prepare citizens to make Fundamental Transformations of the settlement pattern, the governance structure and the economic system.  

Current poles show the majority of citizens do not trust, and do not believe most of those leading the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan.

In this context, it is useful to revisit a multi-chapter Perspective TIMBERFENCE: TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES.   The 2009 version was widely distributed among leaders in the Greater Warrenton Fauquier Community.  It has been ignored. 

The 22 October 2009 version of TIMBERFENCE: TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES can be found in Chapter 50 TRILO-G  has been reviewed.  A link to the updated Perspective is provided below.  There are NO substantive changes in facts, conclusions or predictions in the 15 March 2011 version.  Special thanks to Bob Lee for carefully reading the 22 October 2009 version and offering suggestions to improve grammar, clarity and to correct errors.    

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)    


  

# 13 JUST THE FACTS

27 April 2011 / 4 September 2014

Almost everyone wants to live in a prosperous, happy and safe Community.  What are the facts that citizens need to understand if they are to create such a place by making intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the marketplace?

To provide a summary of information in the brief ‘Program Notes’ sidebar in “Fundamental Transformation: Community survival depends on philosophical metamorphosis”,* SYNERGY  drafted:

THE FACTS CITIZENS NEED TO UNDERSTAND CONCERNING SUBREGIONAL REALITY AND THE IMPACT OF SUBREGIONAL REALITY ON GREATER WARRENTON - FAUQUIER

These facts are also critical to guide citizen actions in the remainder of the Virginia portion of the National Capital SubRegion.  In fact, this information is critical for residents of any Urban agglomeration if they are seeking a functional and sustainable future.  These are THE contextual realities within the economic, social and physical field of influence of any large, prosperous New Urban Region in the US.

* “Fundamental Transformation: Community survival depends on philosophical metamorphosis” by Bill Walsh PIEDMONT Business Journal Spring 2011 Page 58 later also published as Current Perspective # 22 BRIEF RENDITON OF THE NEED FOR FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION 11 November 2011.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (pdf)  



# 12 THE ALPHA COMMUNITY READING LIST

27 April 2011

If citizens are to evolve a prosperous and sustainable future, books will be an important tool.

THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE  lists 146 books in APPENDIX THREE – READINGS.  According to Amazon.Com, the book’s End Notes cite over 190 books.  “Fireside Reading,” Chapter 34 of TRILO-G  reviews, summarizes or notes over 100 books.

THE ALPHA COMMUNITY READING LIST is a selection of 22 recent books from the SYNERGY library, presented in five topic areas: The Big Picture, Regional and SubRegional Settlement Patterns, Alpha Community economic Reality, Cooperation and Conservation in Balance with Competition and Consumption – True Conservatism, The Bottom Line. These are areas of understanding with which citizens must be familiar if Households are to evolve functional human settlement patterns at the Cluster, Neighborhood, Village, Community and SubRegional scales. 

Settlement patterns at all these scales are the sine qua non of economic prosperity, social stability and environmental sustainability.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (PDF)



# 10 2011 SYNERGY PROJECT SUMMARY

1 Jan 2011 / Revised through 26 Aug 2014

The 2011 SYNERGY Project Summary is presented in three sections.  These sections correspond to the three Books that make up TRILO-G (Beta 2, 2010): FOUNDATIONS, BRIDGES, ACTION.

The 2011 SYNERGY PROJECT SUMMARY up dated through 26 April 2011 covers 12 current projects and two deferred projects.


As projects in this section are completed they are posted on the PERSPECTIVES page.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (pdf)



# 09 CITIZEN MEDIA, THE NEXT STEP

24 March 2011

Citizen Media serves the interests of the New Fourth Estate – citizens and their Households.  Citizen Media is the source for information citizens must have to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the market place. 

CITIZEN MEDIA, THE NEXT STEP is a multi-chapter Perspective that presents a comprehensive review of what Citizen Media is and how it could evolve to serve the needs of the New Fourth Estate – citizens and their Households.

THE ESTATES MATRIX  (PART TWO of TRILO-G)  examines the evolution of the three “Estates of the Realm” from 1304 to 1775.  It also outlines the Fundamental Transformation of these three Estates after1775. 

During the period 1775 to 2000, the three historical Estates that had evolved over thousands of years transformed into the four contemporary Estates – Agency, Enterprise, Institution and Citizens / Households.   These four Estates evolved to manage contemporary civilization just as the three widely recognized Estates of the Realm had evolved up to 1775.  THE ESTATES MATRIX also outlines the need for, and role of media serving each of the four New Estates, and especially Citizen Media serving the New Fourth Estate.

CITIZEN MEDIA, THE NEXT STEP launches from the foundation established by THE ESTATES MATRIX

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (pdf) 


 

# 05  SHAPING A FUNCTIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

Presented 10 April 2008 / First published 15 June 2008 / Current Perspective Posted 7 November 2011.

This Perspective was originally presented to the governing body of a large (415,800 ac), low density (65,200 pn) municipality located between Radius = 35 Miles and Radius = 55 Miles from the Centroid of the National Capital SubRegion / Washington - Baltimore New Urban Region in April of 2008.

SHAPING A FUNCTIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE FUTURE has been posted here because of current relevancy.  As The Great Recession rolls on and the Wealth and Citizen Well Being Gulf grows wider, the strategies that might have been implemented in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s were not yet implemented in 2008 and are STILL not implemented in 2011.  The reasons for the lack of action are spelled out in this Current Perspective.

The area beyond Radius = 30 of the most prosperous New Urban Regions in the US is the focus of foreclosures and loss of value for reasons spelled out in Current Perspective # 13 “Just the Facts” and future Current Perspectives in process.   

Since the start of The Great Recession the value of dwellings beyond R=30 have dropped by 40 + / - percent and are not predicted to increase, much less regain past levels in the foreseeable future for reasons spelled out I “Just the Facts” Current Perspective # 13 and in “SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONSILIENCE Current Perspective # 26.  Potential new residents are unlikely to invest in places that have little potential to increase in value unless they also work in those places.  (A basic reality for the future of Greater Warrenton-Fauquier.)

This document is also available from the RESOURCES page of this web site as Column #125 in Chapter 46 under Key Resources.  Scroll down to page 856.

CLICK HERE TO OPEN 15 JUNE 2008 COLUMN # 125 (pfd)



# 04 AMERICA'S GREAT OUTDOORS

WHAT FEDERAL AGENCIES CAN DO TO HELP PRESERVE IT

30 July 2010

Recently, the White House initiated the "America’s Great Outdoors" program. Several conservation organizations forwarded material on the program. Here are the questions being asked at fora across the US:

1.What challenges do you face when it comes to protecting the great outdoors?
2.What's working?
3.How can the federal government be a better partner?
4.What tools do you need to be more successful?
5.How can the United States better support private land conservation?
6.What should our priorities be for public land conservation?

Here is how EMR replied:

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (pdf)


 

# 03 DEGROWTH – SHRINKING TO SURVIVE THEN PROSPER

13 June 2010

DeGrowth is a resurgent survival strategy for contemporary civilization: 

Step One:  The footprint of human consumption must shrink so that most humans -- and ALL other species -- do not have to perish just so a few humans at the top of the Ziggurat can survive for a while longer in luxury and superabundance. 

Step Two:  Transition to a Steady State Economy where consumption is in Balance with sustainable and renewable resources.  In this way, ALL species have the opportunity to prosper because of the Balance between consumption and regeneration.

At the end of March this year 500 citizens turned up in Barcelona for the Second International Conference on Degrowth (aka, ‘DeGrowth,’ a topology which makes it clear that the focus is on the rate of GROWTH and achieving Balance). 

In April a similar gathering was held in Vancouver.  DeGrowth is popular in Regions such as the Vancouver New Urban Region (NUR) which is # 4 on the 2010 Mercer Quality of Living Survey Best 50.  (The Barcelona NUR is #44 and the Paris NUR is # 34 on the Mercer list.)

The first international conference on DeGrowth was held in Paris in 2008.  The Paris conference produced a declaration that defines ‘degrowth’ as “a voluntary transition towards a just, participatory and ecologically sustainable society.”  The declaration states that “if humans do not bring global economic activity into line with societal needs, the result will be a process of involuntary and uncontrolled economic decline or collapse.”   One may assume this use of ‘collapse’ is the same as ‘THE Collapse’ articulated by Jared Diamond. 

From these statements it is clear that DeGrowth is in the enlightened self-interest of ALL humans, not just a few at the top of the Ziggurat.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (pdf)


# 02 DRAFT OPEN LETTER TO STEVE FULLER

18 May 2010

Professor Steven S. Fuller, PhD
Director, Center for Regional Analysis
George Mason University

Dear Steve:

Our paths have not crossed in some time.  Your report “The Future of the Washington Metropolitan Area Economy” released on 8 April 2010 and your ‘Commentary’ published in Capital Business on 10 May 2010 suggests that it is time to touch base.

JOBS / HOUSING IMBALANCE

A recurring theme of your academic work and consulting efforts for as long as we can remember has been the negative impact of a Jobs / Housing ImBalance in the National Capital SubRegion.  This area is variously known as the Washington Metropolitan Area, the Washington dominated portion of the Washington - Baltimore Consolidated Metropolitan Area, ‘Greater Washington,’ ‘the State of Potomac,’ the Wash COG service area plus surrounding municipal jurisdictions – or as it is termed in the 10 May 2010 Capital Business ‘Commentary’ – ‘The Washington metropolitan area’ – no capitals).

The POTENTIAL of a Job / Housing ImBalance in the National Capital SubRegion that you identify in your 8 April report and cite in the 10 May ‘Commentary’ is far more important today than any previously projected Jobs / Housing ImBalance. 

That is the reason for this letter.

Action to avoid the POTENTIAL of the Jobs / Housing ImBalance which you have projected is critically important to the economic well-being of every citizen, Household, Enterprise, Agency and Institution in the National Capital SubRegion.  You underscore the reasons for this fact in your 10 May ‘Commentary.’

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE LETTER (pdf)
 



# 01 OUT OF THE OILY SLIME – FOR A MOMENT

Posted 11 May 2010, Original Re-posted 11 November 2011

Observations from and conversations following the May 2010 joint forum by federal Agencies (HUD, DOT, EPA) and SubRegional Organizations (Hosted by Wash COG) indicates that:

The National Capital SubRegion has wasted the last decade by not implementing a broad consensus concerning the path to a sustainable future that existed a decade ago.

The oily slime in the Gulf of Mexico makes the point clearly that there was not a day – much less a decade – that citizens and their Organizations could afford to squander if they are to evolve  functional and sustainable human settlement patterns.

While Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions attempt to contain the bp blow out, EMR took a moment to consider how to disengage the health,  safety and welfare of citizens in the Washington- Baltimore New Urban Region from Large, Private Vehicles. 

Disengagement from the Large, Private Vehicle Mobility Myth would help demonstrate how to address the problem of mass consumption of petroleum.  It would also be a major step toward a sustainable trajectory for Urban civilization.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE ENTIRE ENTRY (pdf)
 

For definitions of words that may appear to be 'irregular Capitalization' in Current Perspectives see GLOSSARY in RESOURCES. also see TRILO-G Chapter 26 – Gibberish: The Vocabulary of Babel and "New Urban Region Conceptual Framework" in Chapter 49 of TRILO-G.

 

 

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